There are three races at Royal Ascot this week that are part of the Handicap competition. Hugely competitive contests that always take plenty of unpicking so we have put together a trends stat pack to try and narrow the fields down. We will have horse racing prices on all races at Royal Ascot live from 9am on the day of the race.
Royal Hunt Cup
A cavalry charge up the straight mile on Wednesday, the second day of Royal Ascot. It’s a contest that Godolphin have won three times in the last six renewals with James Doyle boasting a pair of wins and a second from nine rides in the last decade.
Age of winners
A race that has become increasingly dominated by the 4yo’s. Since 2016, 4yo’s have represented 49% of all runners in the contest but have yielded five of the six winners (83%) as well as 13 of the 18 (72%) placed horses.
Draw Bias
Generally a fair spread across the track. In the last decade there have been five winners drawn 11 or lower and five from 21 or higher. That would suggest the middle is not the place to be, however, stalls 10-19 have produced 31% of the runners in the last ten years but 47% of the placed horses!
Weight/Rating
Seven of the last 10 winners have carried between 9-0 and 9-3. Just a four pound range producing the majority of the winners. Eight of the last 10 winners have been rated 99+ which shows the quality of the contest. That said, it required a mark of at least 96 to get into the race in eight of those 10.
Starting Price
Seven of the 10 winners from the last decade have been 16/1 or bigger with five of those between 16/1-20/1. Being favourite for this race has been the kiss of death. Forgotten Voice in 2009 is the only winning favourite in the last 25 years while Astro King in 2021 is the only favourite in the last decade to make it into the first four home!
Most recent run
Four of the last 10 winners last ran between 32 and 39 days prior. Two arrived on seasonal debut off the back of a down the field run in the Cambridgeshire. Only a single winner in the past decade won on their final start before landing the Royal Hunt Cup but seven of the 10 were in the first four last time out.
Summary
- Four-year-old
- Drawn has little effect, though close to a rail high or low marginally preferred
- Carrying between 9-0 and 9-3
- Avoid the favourite, 16/1-20/1 is the sweet spot
- Ran about 5 weeks back or seasonal debut after a run in the Cambridgeshire
- Pay attention to Godolphin runners and/or what James Doyle rides
Britannia Stakes
Another contest that is run over the straight mile. This race is confined to just 3yo’s and comes up on Thursday. Jamie Spencer has been the man to follow in this event down the years, winning in 2003, 2006, 2016 and 2017.
Draw Bias
Six of the last 10 winners have been drawn between 11-19 so the middle has been the place to be. That would be in contrast to most common thinking concerning the straight track at Ascot. Stalls 30+ have not produced a winner in the last decade but have been responsible for 17% of the placed horses despite only contributing 11% of the runners.
Weight/Rating
Generally a tight-knit contest with only a stone covering top to bottom. Six of the last 10 winners have been rated 90-96, including five of the last six. 32 horses rated 100+ have run in the race in the last decade, producing one winner and two places.
Starting Price
Five of the last 10 winners have been 10/1 or shorter. Just a single winning favourite in that time but another four have been placed. A race full of progressive types that the market seems to read pretty well.
Most Recent Run
Seven of the last 10 winners ran within the past 26 days. Six winners won on their most recent start with another two finishing runner-up so recent form is important. Eight of the last 10 winners had had no more than five career starts ahead of the Britannia.
Summary
- Middle draws have produced the most winners
- Rated 90-96
- Towards the head of the market
- Ran within the last 26 days and no more than five career starts
- Jamie Spencer’s ride will prove popular
Wokingham
Six furlongs is the distance for the big sprint handicap of the week, run on Saturday. Kevin Ryan has been the trainer to follow in this contest over the last decade. He won the race in 2013 and 2018, had the runner-up in 2016 as well as a 3rd in 2018. It’s rare for there to be a French runner in this race but the three who have taken part in the last 20 years have all finished in the frame, one dead heating for the win in 2003.
Age Of Winners
A 5yo has won six of the last 10 renewals. 90 4yo’s have run in the race in that time for just a single winner, though 12 of them have been placed.
Draw Bias
The last three winners have all been drawn 10 so no doubt that will prove popular once more. Four winners have come from stalls in the 20’s with Out Do the only winner in the last decade to come out of a single figure draw.
Weight/Rating
The four-pound range from 8-13 to 9-3 has seen six winners in the last decade. Five of the last 10 winners have been rated 105 or above, the real classy types seem to do well in this compressed handicap
Starting Price
A mashup of prices with four winners at 10/1 or shorter and three of 25/1 or bigger in the last decade. 17/30 placed horses were 16/1 or bigger, eight of those 20/1 or 25/1.
Most Recent Run
One winner making seasonal debut, the rest had all run within the last 42 days. Eight of the last 10 winners had raced between 12-20 times in their career ahead of winning the Wokingham. Eight of the 10 had finished no worse than 4th on their most recent outing, two winners, four seconds and two fourths.
Summary
- Five-year-old
- Double figure draw
- Carrying 8-13 to 9-3
- Raced within the last 42 days and finished in the first four home on that occasion
- Kevin Ryan runners highly respected